Exam Feedback November 2019 Part 1 Exam Feedback

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randrema

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even my answer was butterfly spread since according to me the question specified trader expected limited volatility therefor strangle or straddle doesn't make sense
I remember the question said price is expected to go 40% under price 1 or 40% above price 2. I consider these 2 prices as 2 strikes. I consider also 40% is a substantial move. That's why I chose strangle.
 

stevoDE

Member
I remember the question said price is expected to go 40% under price 1 or 40% above price 2. I consider these 2 prices as 2 strikes. I consider also 40% is a substantial move. That's why I chose strangle.

Yip, maximise profit for 40% move up or down and minimise losses if it stayed in 20% range or something along those lines. I chose butterfly spread but strangle is the correct answer.
 
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Venkat k

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I think you remember correctly, this is how I did it:

First up probability:

[e^(2/1)-0.9]/[1.05-0.9] =73.4%

So probability down is 26.6%

Up move step is 3200*1.05=3369

Down step 2970

The value of up move step is 0*73.4%=0

The value of down move is (3200-2970)*26.6%=230*26.6%=61.18

So total value is 61.18 and when you find PV using cont discounting it is 60.6
I have doubt in down move factor we should not take as. 90 as down move. We should take. 95.
3300×1.05= 3465

3300 3465×.95 =3300
3135×1.05=3300

3300×.95=3135

and my guess is since this is futures index risk neutral probability should take 1.

and the present value of (3200-3135=65) is 64.XX.which is option c. It is logical guess only.
 

Fisuca

New Member
I remember the question said price is expected to go 40% under price 1 or 40% above price 2. I consider these 2 prices as 2 strikes. I consider also 40% is a substantial move. That's why I chose strangle.
Exactly the same. Only strangle was volatility long...
 

Fisuca

New Member
I have doubt in down move factor we should not take as. 90 as down move. We should take. 95.
3300×1.05= 3465

3300 3465×.95 =3300
3135×1.05=3300

3300×.95=3135

and my guess is since this is futures index risk neutral probability should take 1.

and the present value of (3200-3135=65) is 64.XX.which is option c. It is logical guess only.
Why should a future Index have a risk neutral prob of one ? The risk neutral Probability is a change in the Probability measure such that you can discount the expected option value with the risk free rate and is derived from the up and down factor..
 

Fisuca

New Member
Why should a future Index have a risk neutral prob of one ? The risk neutral Probability is a change in the Probability measure such that you are able to discount the expected option value with the risk free rate and is derived from the up and down factor..
 

randrema

New Member
I have doubt in down move factor we should not take as. 90 as down move. We should take. 95.
3300×1.05= 3465

3300 3465×.95 =3300
3135×1.05=3300

3300×.95=3135

and my guess is since this is futures index risk neutral probability should take 1.

and the present value of (3200-3135=65) is 64.XX.which is option c. It is logical guess only.

Was the binomial question related to a future but not stock?
The risk neutral probability up should that case equal to (1 - D)/(U - D).
I was trapped by the stress alhough I know it.
This exam was really tricky.
 

Fisuca

New Member
Was the binomial question related to a future but not stock?
The risk neutral probability up should that case equal to (1 - D)/(U - D).
I was trapped by the stress alhough I know it.
This exam was really tricky.
P_up=e(r* Delta t)-d /(u-d)
 

Venkat k

New Member
Was the binomial question related to a future but not stock?
The risk neutral probability up should that case equal to (1 - D)/(U - D).
I was trapped by the stress alhough I know it.
This exam was really tricky.
Yes i guess given data was about futures index.
 

randrema

New Member
P_up=e(r* Delta t)-d /(u-d)

In the swcheser notes : « The binomial model can also incorporate the unique characteristics of options on futures. Since futures contracts are costless to enter into, they are considered, in a risk-neutral setting, to be zero growth instruments. To account for this characteristic, ert is simply replaced with a 1. »
 

yz1300

New Member
does anyone remember that there is a question about moral hazard or adverse selection? Which one did you take?
 

randrema

New Member
does anyone remember that there is a question about moral hazard or adverse selection? Which one did you take?
As I remember it asked the disadvantages of ccp, especially when a party has the less incentive to monitor the risk of another party because of the ccp taking the risk. I answered moral hazard
 

Fisuca

New Member
In the swcheser notes : « The binomial model can also incorporate the unique characteristics of options on futures. Since futures contracts are costless to enter into, they are considered, in a risk-neutral setting, to be zero growth instruments. To account for this characteristic, ert is simply replaced with a 1. »
Oh it was a future? I remeber it being a Stock underlying (blue book)
 
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