Exam Feedback May 2017 Part 2 Exam Feedback

[cj9101]

cj9101, no OFFICIAL score has ever been published by Garp so "anyone" or any "other forum" couldnot be any more credible than BT. It's been all speculation.

People can feedback from forum discussion what they got for this exam.

 

[cj9101]

No sir..bcz the person himself didn't knew his score..thats the point i am trying to make...

I saw you mentioned 40-45 as a cutoff... That was why I asked you this, no offense.

 

[bpdulog]

Well I think 40 is 50% correct, yes? Based on passage rates of around 50%, and assuming a normal distribution of scores, the cutoff should be about half. But then again, we do not know the underlying distribution, maybe it is highly skewed to the right? Who knows

 

[necofrer]

This was a mean reversion question to find long-term rate. I got 1.82 (0.6781/0.3722)

I remember I did the same. Just equal to zero and solved, but I got 0.3X which was one of the answers.

 

[cj9101]

Well I think 40 is 50% correct, yes? Based on passage rates of around 50%, and assuming a normal distribution of scores, the cutoff should be about half. But then again, we do not know the underlying distribution, maybe it is highly skewed to the right? Who knows

Are you assuming 50% or have at least some reason?

 

[bpdulog]

I remember I did the same. Just equal to zero and solved, but I got 0.3X which was one of the answers.

I think you fell for the same trap I did. The regression coefficient was -.37 something, and is the negative of mean reversion rate. So the autocorrelation is .63 or 1-.37. Unless the question was asking for mean reversion rate? I really don't remember at this point

 

[necofrer]

I thought long term mean correlation, but maybe I read it wrongly...

 

[bpdulog]

I thought long term mean correlation, but maybe I read it wrongly...

Maybe I did as well. I know the material but the time pressure and wording of questions messes with your head

 

[pikachuu]

anyone remember the answer of the question ranking funds L, M and N from least likely to default to most likely?

also the question of the graph of federal funds rate and CVA? what should the graph look like?

 

[necofrer]

The CVA graph should be like 1/x function

 

[bpdulog]

Are you assuming 50% or have at least some reason?

50% is roughly the historical pass rate. It doesn't have to be that, could be higher or lower. What I'm trying to say is, if you want to go with a historical simulation method, then 50% is your starting point which is what I assumed the other fellow did.

This differs from your assumption of top 2500-2800, which is based on speculation and no historical data

 

[pikachuu]

Let's stop your hunt for clues to narrow down the exact precise passing score, cj9101. There is no official source at all.
All are based on estimation and assessment by test takers on their own performance, there just have been numerous discussions that point to some ranges that many happen to agree.

 

[bpdulog]

Does anyone have a GARP reference to the CVA graph or the narrative that supports it? I really don't remember reading about the relationship between CVA and fed funds rate.

 

[necofrer]

there was a correlation between fed fund and the discount rate. The discount rate affects the discount factor in the CVA, that was my thought.

 

[cj9101]

50% is roughly the historical pass rate. It doesn't have to be that, could be higher or lower. What I'm trying to say is, if you want to go with a historical simulation method, then 50% is your starting point which is what I assumed the other fellow did.

This differs from your assumption of top 2500-2800, which is based on speculation and no historical data

Ok. I got it. Thank you.

 

[Part 2 Student]

anyone remember the answer of the question ranking funds L, M and N from least likely to default to most likely?

also the question of the graph of federal funds rate and CVA? what should the graph look like?

Is the correct sequence M, N, L? Memory could serve me wrong.

 

[cj9101]

Let's stop your hunt for clues to narrow down the exact precise passing score, cj9101. There is no official source at all.
All are based on estimation and assessment by test takers on their own performance, there just have been numerous discussions that point to some ranges that many happen to agree.

Ok. I will stop it.

 

[cj9101]

50% is roughly the historical pass rate. It doesn't have to be that, could be higher or lower. What I'm trying to say is, if you want to go with a historical simulation method, then 50% is your starting point which is what I assumed the other fellow did.

This differs from your assumption of top 2500-2800, which is based on speculation and no historical data

So you mean 40 out of 80 was normal cutoff from historic approach?

 

[bpdulog]

there was a correlation between fed fund and the discount rate. The discount rate affects the discount factor in the CVA, that was my thought.

I thought that too. But I chose the downward sloping line. Is it not a linear relationship?

 

[cj9101]

I thought that too. But I chose the downward sloping line. Is it not a linear relationship?

I also choose linear downward sloping.