Hi @David Harper CFA FRM , it seems that there is a minor typo in the notes for hull chapter 2 page 24. The ending margin balance should be $15180 instead of $15860.
- The ending margin balance is $15,180 (=12000 + 4020 + 3780 - 4620) which tallies the initial margin levels plus the variation margins provided during the two margin calls less the cumulative loss
'' In the second scenario, the producer is exposes to a future spot price decrease, such that the appropriate hedge is a short position in coffee futures contracts. In this case as the future sale price is not predetermined, the underlying exposure is effectively a short position such that the hedge instrument is a long position. ''
Concerning scenario 2, i need a little clarification on the difference between the appropriate hedge being short and the hedge instrument being long
Edit: So I found out that the last sentence this is a typo on the notes, so all's good
"A key difference: is the future price predetermined? Consider a coffee producer who plans to sell 100 pounds of coffee on a future date under two different scenarios:
If the coffee producer wants to hedge with coffee futures, the hedge differs depending on the scenario:
- To a key customer, the coffee producer promises to sell 100 pounds, on a date one year in the future, at $3.00 per pound.
- To a key customer, the coffee producer promises to sell 100 pounds, on a date one year in the future, at the future spot price (which is obviously unknown today)
- In the first scenario, the producer is exposed to a future spot price increase, such that the appropriate hedge is a long position in coffee futures contracts. Because the sales price of $3.00 is predetermined, the underlying exposure is effectively a short position, such that the hedge instrument is a long position to offset.
- In the second scenario, the producer is exposed to a future spot price decrease, such that the appropriate hedge is a short position in coffee futures contracts. In this case as the future sale price is not predetermined, the underlying exposure is effectively a short position such that the hedge instrument is a long position."
Thank you. David. I understand a short position should be used in scenario 2. But, what's the meaning of the last sentence "the underlying exposure is effectively a short position such that the hedge instrument is a long position. "? I think it's the same with the last sentence of scenario 1. Does it still mean a short position should be used?@tattoo Yes, that typo has been fixed (for a while I think); page 34 now reads as below. The second scenario is the classic (aka, typical) case of a commodity seller (e.g., farmer) who plans to sell in the future at the then-prevailing but currently unknown (unknowable) price, whose risk is therefore a price decline such that a hedge would be a short futures contract. The risk is a spot price decline, so the hedge is a short futures position. The easy part is what to call it: a hedge that employs a short position is a short hedge. Thanks,
"If the coffee producer wants to hedge with coffee futures, the hedge differs depending on the scenario:
- In the first scenario, the producer is exposed to a future spot price increase, such that the appropriate hedge is a long position in coffee futures contracts. Because the sales price of $3.00 is predetermined, the underlying exposure is effectively a short position, such that the hedge instrument is a long position to offset.
- In the second scenario, the producer is exposed to a future spot price decrease, such that the appropriate hedge is a short position in coffee futures contracts. In this case as the future sale price is not predetermined, the underlying exposure is effectively a long position such that the hedge instrument is a short position."
... but we did neglect to update the "copied" version in the Study Notes. Apologies. But again, THANK YOU sincerely for the help catching mistakes!147.3 Which of the following is TRUE about a normal/inverted futures market?
a. A futures market is either normal or inverted but cannot be a mixture
b. The roll return (roll yield) is profitable to a long position during an inverted (backwardation) futures market
c. A falling futures price necessarily implies backwardation
d. Gold must always be a normal market (assuming positive interest rates) because it has storage cost but does not pay a dividend
@David Harper CFA FRM This appears in the study notes exactly as you have it written in your comment above. Unless I'm missing something, it looks like it matches the source.Hi @tattoo Yes, you are correct about question 4 on page 37 of R19 (cc @Nicole Seaman ): it had already been spotted and fixed in the source (see https://forum.bionicturtle.com/threads/l1-t3-147-normal-versus-inverted-futures-market-hull.4396/ ) i.e.,
... but we did neglect to update the "copied" version in the Study Notes. Apologies. But again, THANK YOU sincerely for the help catching mistakes!
@David Harper CFA FRM@Nicole Seaman The difference is "to a long position" in choice (b): "b. The roll return (roll yield) is profitable to a long position during an inverted (backwardation) futures market" .... most people haven't noticed! Thank you,
Hello David, thank you so much for your timely reply. One missing point:
For choice c) of question 4 in page 37 of R19-P1-T3, should it clarify that this only applies to a long position ?