Difference between May and November

[Walex]

Hi all,

I just finished the CFA program and work in risk management. I am planning to register for the May 2017 exam.

When I gathered information about the FRM program I found that there's a remarkable difference between the pass rates in May and in November. I was wondering if there's an explanation for this. Just out of curiosity, does anyone have an idea?

Thanks!

 

[Nicole Seaman]

Hi all,

I just finished the CFA program and work in risk management. I am planning to register for the May 2017 exam.

When I gathered information about the FRM program I found that there's a remarkable difference between the pass rates in May and in November. I was wondering if there's an explanation for this. Just out of curiosity, does anyone have an idea?

Thanks!

Hello @Walex

Other members or David may have a more specific answer for you, but while you are waiting for others to answer, you may find some helpful information in our exam feedback threads. Many of our members discuss the exam in detail in those threads. Here are the most recent feedback threads, but you can find more by using the search function in the forum and typing in "feedback"

• November 2015 P1 Exam: https://forum.bionicturtle.com/threads/november-2015-part-1-frm-exam-feedback.9164/
• November 2015 P2 Exam: https://forum.bionicturtle.com/threads/november-2015-part-2-frm-exam-feedback.9165/
• May 2016 P1 Exam: https://forum.bionicturtle.com/threads/may-2016-part-1-exam-feedback.9609/
• May 2016 P2 Exam: https://forum.bionicturtle.com/threads/may-2016-part-2-exam-feedback.9610/

Nicole

 

[David Harper CFA FRM]

@Walex Yes, you are correct. Among the threads listed by Nicole is my chart at https://forum.bionicturtle.com/threads/may-2016-part-1-exam-feedback.9609/page-13#post-43490 , see below

FYI, GARP tweeted the pass rates (see https://twitter.com/GARP_Risk/status/748237107982802944):

• May 2016 P1 = 44.5% and
  
• May 2016 P2 = 50.1%.

See my updated graph below. Two immediate observations:

• May 2016 Part 1 (P1) pass rate of 44.5% is 2.7% below its (prior) long-run average of 47.2%. May 2016 Part 2 (P2) pass rate is fully 7.4% below its (prior) long-run average of 57.5%
  
• The recent seasonal trend continues; i.e., we are recently observing lower pass rates in May and higher pass rates in November. Especially, consider the Part 1 swings. Since its second-highest-of-all-time pass rate of 50.9% on Nov 2013, it has swung by ~ 5% (+/-) seasonally.
  • From 50.9% of Nov 2013, -8.4% to 42.5% of May 2014
  • + 6.3% to 48.8% of Nov 2014
  • - 5.8% to 43.0% of May 2015
  • +6.2% to 49.2% of Nov 2015
  • -4.7% to 44.5% of May 2016; although interestingly, this brings the complete long-run averages (i.e., starting from May 2010 when the exam split and including May 2016) right back to the same ~47.0% for P1 and ~57.0% for P2 (which are already published on our home page, but were slightly understated previously).

I was asked in the same thread about the difference between May and November. Below is my mere speculation. Thanks,

Hi @emilioalzamora1

Great question. I think we'll send a query to GARP tomorrow, just in case they want to respond I think your theories are each interesting. I wish I knew definitively the answer to (3) but the GARP staff is not different to my knowledge (the practitioners vary but there is no reason to expect it's a seasonal cause). Here are my mere thoughts:

• I would expect a major factor is simply that candidates have six additional months, in theory, to study unchanged material. For argument's sake, given the exact same material and same standard, we'd expect better performance in November given the material doesn't change yet there is much more time. For example, how many attempt both P1 and P2 in May versus November? (I don't know). Well, for those (brave) ambitious people, given the breadth of material, I would certainly expect higher pass rates in November! (if there is a material number of P1+P2 takers, the first thing i'd do with EDA is parse them out to see how much they alone contribute ...)
  • Related, November candidates have the benefit of May feedback. Social media changes the game. In recent years. the last exam is basically eventually almost dissected.
  • This exam change (once a year) is more significant for the FRM than, say, the CFA
• Also, while I do not know the details, it is reasonable to expect that GARP "learns something" from May to November with respect to the recently changed material. GARP's learning, on the other hand, could cut either way ...
  • Related, to the extent really new material (ie, just introduced in 2016) is "new learning" for exam creators (GARP), there is slightly more uncertainty with respect to calibration of question difficulty. For example, for a brand new reading, a question might be written that, upon inspection of the exam outcomes, turns out to be extremely difficult (e.g., I would sort the questions from highest percentage correct to lowest) such that it would not be repeated in November.
• The volatility is interesting, to me, simply because GARP's methodology does allow for them to roughly manage a pass rate outcome. Statistically, this volatility suggests to me that the interquartile (IRQ), or really I mean the range between the top 5% and the passing X%, might "tighten" on them a bit from May to November (i.e., a bit of clustering toward the upper deciles), which could be supported with narrative. I suppose. In any case, it's very interesting to me that GARP resists managing the outcome to a straighter line (I don't disagree, it's just interesting and makes me wonder too). Thanks!