Exam Feedback May 2016 Part 1 Exam Feedback

[on2harris]

passed .. phew ! 2,2,1,1

 

[fjc120]

Saw Pass this morning. Waited 6 hours to see it again. THANK YOU DAVID.

 

[y2alk]

Passed

 

[bpdulog]

Passed 1,1,2,1

On to the next one

 

[ZOAL]

I would like to use this opportunity to thank Bionic for the good job. Using your materials helped me pass FRM I.

 

[brian.field]

Passed 1,1,2,1

On to the next one

Congrats @bpdulog - there was never a doubt in my mind!

 

[Nicole Seaman]

well, I called them in New Jersey and the guy on the phone confirmed it. I am 100% sure that they can NOT alter anything now; there would no reason.

Register for Part II and you have further evidence.

I have registered for Part II and got the confirmation by mail, so everything is fine.

Why does no one from BIONIC step in here?

Hello @emilioalzamora1

@brian.field is correct that Bionic Turtle is not affiliated with GARP so we really have no control over any issues they may encounter. However, with that being said, David did send an email to GARP to inquire about what was going on yesterday. We always try to help our customers in any way that we can. Below is a copy of the email that David sent to them:

"Hi Bill et all

Our forum members are reporting that GARP's site is experiencing technical issues. The specific concern is that some are observing no record of attending the exam (which would naturally cause concern). At the same time, some members have been able to observe their exam results. I imagine it is merely a website reporting issue, although it would be really helpful (ie., calming) if we could quote a statement to that effect? Thank you!"

GARP did acknowledge our email, but only said "The exam result letters will be going out about 4pm." This was in no way an answer to the question that David asked, and we did not feel that posting it here in the forum would be of any help to anyone. We are very happy that this was resolved, and that everyone can view their results now.

Thank you,

Nicole

 

[Mad11372]

Passed yayy

 

[Mad11372]

3,1,2 2

 

[David Harper CFA FRM]

FYI, GARP tweeted the pass rates (see https://twitter.com/GARP_Risk/status/748237107982802944):

• May 2016 P1 = 44.5% and
  
• May 2016 P2 = 50.1%.

See my updated graph below. Two immediate observations:

• May 2016 Part 1 (P1) pass rate of 44.5% is 2.7% below its (prior) long-run average of 47.2%. May 2016 Part 2 (P2) pass rate is fully 7.4% below its (prior) long-run average of 57.5%
  
• The recent seasonal trend continues; i.e., we are recently observing lower pass rates in May and higher pass rates in November. Especially, consider the Part 1 swings. Since its second-highest-of-all-time pass rate of 50.9% on Nov 2013, it has swung by ~ 5% (+/-) seasonally.
  • From 50.9% of Nov 2013, -8.4% to 42.5% of May 2014
  • + 6.3% to 48.8% of Nov 2014
  • - 5.8% to 43.0% of May 2015
  • +6.2% to 49.2% of Nov 2015
  • -4.7% to 44.5% of May 2016; although interestingly, this brings the complete long-run averages (i.e., starting from May 2010 when the exam split and including May 2016) right back to the same ~47.0% for P1 and ~57.0% for P2 (which are already published on our home page, but were slightly understated previously).

 

[emilioalzamora1]

Hi David,

many thanks for your detailed statistics. Well, what can we infer from the table? Is the exam 1.) "easier" in Nov., 2.) are there more qualified people sitting it in Nov. or 3.) is there a different team writing the questions for the exam in Nov.?

There must be some logic behind this trend. Any clues?

 

[David Harper CFA FRM]

Hi @emilioalzamora1

Great question. I think we'll send a query to GARP tomorrow, just in case they want to respond I think your theories are each interesting. I wish I knew definitively the answer to (3) but the GARP staff is not different to my knowledge (the practitioners vary but there is no reason to expect it's a seasonal cause). Here are my mere thoughts:

• I would expect a major factor is simply that candidates have six additional months, in theory, to study unchanged material. For argument's sake, given the exact same material and same standard, we'd expect better performance in November given the material doesn't change yet there is much more time. For example, how many attempt both P1 and P2 in May versus November? (I don't know). Well, for those (brave) ambitious people, given the breadth of material, I would certainly expect higher pass rates in November! (if there is a material number of P1+P2 takers, the first thing i'd do with EDA is parse them out to see how much they alone contribute ...)
  • Related, November candidates have the benefit of May feedback. Social media changes the game. In recent years. the last exam is basically eventually almost dissected.
  • This exam change (once a year) is more significant for the FRM than, say, the CFA
• Also, while I do not know the details, it is reasonable to expect that GARP "learns something" from May to November with respect to the recently changed material. GARP's learning, on the other hand, could cut either way ...
  • Related, to the extent really new material (ie, just introduced in 2016) is "new learning" for exam creators (GARP), there is slightly more uncertainty with respect to calibration of question difficulty. For example, for a brand new reading, a question might be written that, upon inspection of the exam outcomes, turns out to be extremely difficult (e.g., I would sort the questions from highest percentage correct to lowest) such that it would not be repeated in November.
• The volatility is interesting, to me, simply because GARP's methodology does allow for them to roughly manage a pass rate outcome. Statistically, this volatility suggests to me that the interquartile (IRQ), or really I mean the range between the top 5% and the passing X%, might "tighten" on them a bit from May to November (i.e., a bit of clustering toward the upper deciles), which could be supported with narrative. I suppose. In any case, it's very interesting to me that GARP resists managing the outcome to a straighter line (I don't disagree, it's just interesting and makes me wonder too). Thanks!

 

[Mkaim]

FYI, GARP tweeted the pass rates (see https://twitter.com/GARP_Risk/status/748237107982802944):

• May 2016 P1 = 44.5% and
  
• May 2016 P2 = 50.1%.

See my updated graph below. Two immediate observations:

• May 2016 Part 1 (P1) pass rate of 44.5% is 2.7% below its (prior) long-run average of 47.2%. May 2016 Part 2 (P2) pass rate is fully 7.4% below its (prior) long-run average of 57.5%
  
• The recent seasonal trend continues; i.e., we are recently observing lower pass rates in May and higher pass rates in November. Especially, consider the Part 1 swings. Since its second-highest-of-all-time pass rate of 50.9% on Nov 2013, it has swung by ~ 5% (+/-) seasonally.
  • From 50.9% of Nov 2013, -8.4% to 42.5% of May 2014
  • + 6.3% to 48.8% of Nov 2014
  • - 5.8% to 43.0% of May 2015
  • +6.2% to 49.2% of Nov 2015
  • -4.7% to 44.5% of May 2016; although interestingly, this brings the complete long-run averages (i.e., starting from May 2010 when the exam split and including May 2016) right back to the same ~47.0% for P1 and ~57.0% for P2 (which are already published on our home page, but were slightly understated previously).

Part 2 pass rate was at a 6 year low...very interesting.

 

[CMalcolm]

Hi David,
thanks for the stats. Very useful indeed to know that we stand a better chance by taking the exams in November!

Would also be interesting to see what percentage of BT students passed (and final average scores); will BT be running any such survey we can participate in?

 

[Johnkrause1]

Thanks for the stat rates. Does anyone know if they include the no shows in the exam results? For CFA then definitely only include people who actually sat the exam. For GARP I am more partial to the fact they include everyone even no shows in the exam statistics. Does anyone have any further info on this?

 

[logicat]

Thank you BT. Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 is simply due to your notes. It made revision brillant! Thank you

 

[romitdeb]

Passed Part 1 with Q2 Q2 Q1 Q3. Thanks a lot David and Bionic Turtle for your comprehensive and lucid explanations of the FRM topics!!!

I have a query which may be slightly off-topic...I had registered for Part 1 on July 17, 2015 but could not take the examination in November 2015 due to insufficient preparation and hence, appeared for it this May. Now I see on my GARP dashboard that my membership is due to expire on July 16, 2016 (exactly 1 year later).

Since I am looking to take a shot at Part 2 in May 2017, do I need to renew my membership? Would my exam fees be only $350 or $650 (including membership fees)?

 

[Deepak Chitnis]

Hi @romitdeb, congratulations! you just need to pay $350 for part 2 and membership fees is upto you, you can renew it if you want, it does give you some benifits, if you didnt check the box GARP will autometically renew your membership by using your credit card you can also turn it off before renewal. Hope that helps!
Thank you!

 

[romitdeb]

Hi @romitdeb, congratulations! you just need to pay $350 for part 2 and membership fees is upto you, you can renew it if you want, it does give you some benifits, if you didnt check the box GARP will autometically renew your membership by using your credit card you can also turn it off before renewal. Hope that helps!
Thank you!

@Deepak Chitnis ...that was very helpful. Thanks!

 

[cAse113]

1,1,1,1 ... reading Schweser and exercising with BT...