If the commodity has positive beta, then the theoretical futures price is less than the expected future spot price: F(0) is less than E[S(t)].
David's XLS is here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/706n2vz1mgprw26/062718-yt-normal-backwardation.xlsx
David's XLS is here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/706n2vz1mgprw26/062718-yt-normal-backwardation.xlsx
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