The p value is the area in the rejection region(s). In this example, we observe a sample mean of +15 bps and our null hypothesis is that the "true" population mean is zero. The corresponding p value of 2.36% is the exact (i.e., lowest) significance level at which we can reject the null. Put another way, we can reject the null with up to 97.64% confidence.
David's XLS: http://trtl.bz/030518-yt-p-value-xls
David's XLS: http://trtl.bz/030518-yt-p-value-xls
