Exam Feedback November 2019 Part 2 Exam Feedback

[Anibal86]

I think the slope would change throughout the QQ plot since both tails of the T-dist are fatter than the Normal? There's some helpful diagrams here: https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/101274/how-to-interpret-a-qq-plot

Also had no idea on the scaling liquidity cost with VaR/notional.

The GEV question was worded very oddly--they appeared to include the u parameter (from GEV, which must be estimated) and the threshold level (from PoT, which is chosen) which I thought were mutually exclusive?

Correct!

Please find the link to this website, where you have the chance to change the degrees of freedom to see how the qq plot is drawn:
https://rpsychologist.com/d3/tdist/

 

[Detective]

On the QQ Plot, I put the choice mentioned in p.1 of this thread which read something like: "the tails and central mass of the distribution exhibit different slopes".

Slope less than 1 (or different than 1) does not necessarily imply normal distribution is not valid. All a slope different than 1 implies that the standard deviation might be different than 1 (standard normal).

y=x -> standard normal, mean = 0, st dev. = 1
y=ax+b -> implies normal with mean=b and st dev. = a, but still normal if slope is not changing

 

[Pciruna]

On the QQ Plot, I put the choice mentioned in p.1 of this thread which read something like: "the tails and central mass of the distribution exhibit different slopes".

Slope less than 1 (or different than 1) does not necessarily imply normal distribution is not valid. All a slope different than 1 implies that the standard deviation might be different than 1 (standard normal).

y=x -> standard normal, mean = 0, st dev. = 1
y=ax+b -> implies normal with mean=b and st dev. = a, but still normal if slope is not changing

On the QQ Plot, I put the choice mentioned in p.1 of this thread which read something like: "the tails and central mass of the distribution exhibit different slopes".

Slope less than 1 (or different than 1) does not necessarily imply normal distribution is not valid. All a slope different than 1 implies that the standard deviation might be different than 1 (standard normal).

y=x -> standard normal, mean = 0, st dev. = 1
y=ax+b -> implies normal with mean=b and st dev. = a, but still normal if slope is not changing

I think it was unnecessarily tricky. Because, Indeed the tails have a diff slope from the central mass, but holistically the overall slope of the QQ plot would be less than a straight line of 1. Thank you for your response.

 

[Anibal86]

I think it was unnecessarily tricky. Because, Indeed the tails have a diff slope from the central mass, but holistically the overall slope of the QQ plot would be less than a straight line of 1. Thank you for your response.

If you refer to this website: https://rpsychologist.com/d3/tdist/
You will see if the degrees of freedom are higher, the t-Student QQ plot converges to the Normal QQ plot, but in any case, the slope for the QQ plot won't be less than one.

 

[Passer-by]

For the QQ plot question, it didn't specify which axis is normal and which is the empirical, but if the slope is different from 1 then it must be non-normal distribution.

 

[Passer-by]

I think this exam was hard because of a lot of reading, very distracting and hard to manage time carefully. It was so easy to lose track of time once you became stuck on one question where you were almost there, eliminated 2 choices already, but struggling between the other two, and for sure you don't want to give up and skip! It was really a pain to figure out the relationships from the wordy stories, such as A had a transaction with B, B had some transaction with C, and A had some other transaction with D, and then D and C... although by looking at the choices, I am familiar with the concepts being tested, just can't figure them out in such limited time.

 

[Tinavit]

There was a question about IR=0.45, BR=225 what is the correlation? I wasn't sure as the word 'correlation' threw me off, but I just calculated IC=IR/SQRT(BR)=0.003. Any thoughts on this question?

Did the same thing, not sure if it is correct...

 

[mar]

while we wait...if they ask you to review the exam..what are the chances that you passed or do they ask everyone?

 

[Detective]

while we wait...if they ask you to review the exam..what are the chances that you passed or do they ask everyone?

What do you mean? They emailed you something?

 

[amit.m.sharma]

while we wait...if they ask you to review the exam..what are the chances that you passed or do they ask everyone?

the candidate survey is for everyone...i wouldn't be surprised if HK candidates were sent the survey as well.

 

[mar]

What do you mean? They emailed you something?

for my Part 1 i got an email with a survey to review the exam (the difficulty, coverage of topics etc)...and i passed..so am just asking if the survey is extended to everyone who took the exam or they randomly select..or only to those who passed

 

[Detective]

for my Part 1 i got an email with a survey to review the exam (the difficulty, coverage of topics etc)...and i passed..so am just asking if the survey is extended to everyone who took the exam or they randomly select..or only to those who passed

OK, should be everyone since I doubt they even graded the exams yet or decided on cutoff. I got email too.

 

[Peterfcm]

for my Part 1 i got an email with a survey to review the exam (the difficulty, coverage of topics etc)...and i passed..so am just asking if the survey is extended to everyone who took the exam or they randomly select..or only to those who passed

i'd be surprised if they even have the papers in their hands yet!

 

[antogiar]

for my Part 1 i got an email with a survey to review the exam (the difficulty, coverage of topics etc)...and i passed..so am just asking if the survey is extended to everyone who took the exam or they randomly select..or only to those who passed

In the survey they even asked if you seat for the exam or not. It isn`t an early hint for sure

 

[aksl]

Did anyone manage to solve CPR and SMM question?
I also got confused about GEV and Pareto distribution question (mu, sigma,chi, chnages).

 

[javal123]

What would be expected cutoff

 

[mar]

Did anyone manage to solve CPR and SMM question?
I also got confused about GEV and Pareto distribution question (mu, sigma,chi, chnages).

can anyone plz recall the exact question..my memory is the worst but i think i saw something with initial amount given,then the monthly premium, then an amount for the deposit made during the month..the answers 28,*.%...29,**..% etc

 

[frmtrial2019]

Hello guys on an average how did you find the exams tough fair or easy and what is your guess-estimate of correct answers

Very Very Difficult!

 

[krisn]

can anyone plz recall the exact question..my memory is the worst but i think i saw something with initial amount given,then the monthly premium, then an amount for the deposit made during the month..the answers 28,*.%...29,**..% etc

There was a question in the prep somewhere, not sure exactly where.
But formulas I recall using were from the books, and are the following:

1. Solve for SMM: SMM = Prepayment / (balance at beginning - scheduled principal repayment)
2. Solve for CPR: CPR = 1 - (1-SMM)^12

Don't remember my numerical answer but the result I obtained with the formulas above was in the answers.

 

[aksl]

I solved similarly got 29.1. Not sure correct