How many passed the FRM 2006 exam.....pass rates for FRM 2007

[jyothi1965]

In order to get some idea of pass rates for 2007, I went to the GARP website. You can get the following information easily:

No of students registered for FRM 2006 - 8007 (as on last day for Exam registration)
No of students who passed - FRM 2006 - 2283 (by counting the number of IDs - simple just import to Excel and use COUNT)

On the face of it this translates into a pass rate of 28%, which is not correct, because there would be no show (students who don't turn up for the exam). I think this will exclude the deferrals as the deadline for this is much earlier (typically in August itself).

So how many people pay the fees and don't turn up for the exam?

Well if you do a sensitivity, the pass rate improves from 28% to 35% assuming a 20% drop out


Drop Outs Pass Rate
20% 35%
25% 38%
30% 41%
35% 43%
40% 47%

My guess is that the drop outs will be between 20%-25% which means that the pass rate is between 35% to 38%.


Now the interesting part.......... (FRM 2007).. let us do a historical simulation using one year's data.

No of students registered for FRM 2007 - 10135 (as on last day for Exam registration- Oct 19th 2007)

If we assume drop rates of 20% and 25% and pass rates of 35% and 38% correspondingly and apply this to 2007 data, the numbers of pass candidates should be:

At 35% pass rate
No of Students passing
20% Drop 2837
25% Drop 2660

At 38% pass rate
No of Students passing
20% Drop 3081
25% Drop 2888

Thus the number of people passing is likely to be between 2660 and 3081. This is based on:

The level of difficulty of FRM 2007 is relatively the same
The level of preparation of FRM 2007 candidates is relatively the same


Any takers for these HS results?

Jyothi

 

[malghani]

Hi Jyoti

First of all good analysis, as rightly said the charity begins at home. You learned the concept and applied on exam itself.

I agree with you that pass rate will remain app. 40-45%, as GARP will reduce it slowly without shocks. But surely the result will follow in these ranges only

Any way, let us wait for big day

All the best.

Rajesh

 

[jyothi1965]

Just to complete the train of thoughts that I had initiated almost 2 months back........

I have been collecting statistics to cross check my historical simulation results which could probably be extended to a one year trading period (meaning the FRM 2008)

To summarise the above calculations, I had forecast the number of people passing is likely to be between 2660 and 3081.

The actual number of people passing the FRM 2007 exam is 2994. This is arrived at by subtracting the cumulative numbers after the announcement of results in 2007 and 2008


No of FRM holders in 2007 (after FRM 2006 exam) 10681
No of FRM holders in 2008 (after FRM 2007 exam) 13675
Difference 2994

from the above we know that 10,135 students registered for the 2007 exam. The actual number of people who took the exam were 6742 which implies that there was a drop out of 3393 students or almost 33%.

So, 2994 students passed out of 6742 who appeared for the exam which gives a pass rate of 44% in 2007 exam. Incidentally, the pass rates in 2006 exam was also 44%.

Going forward, the pass rates should be maintained at 44%. Since Risk management is peaking (Basel II implementation, subprime, etc) expect a larger number of registrations say, a 20% increase over last year's 10135. with a 33% drop out and 44% pass rate, number of students passing the FRM 2008 should be around 3600.

Let us revisit this in January 2009.

Jyothi

 

[raman_19]

From the GARP mail:

"You have now joined a unique but select group of 17,667 financial risk professionals from around the world."

No of FRM holders in 2008 (after FRM 2007 exam) 13,675
No of FRM holders in 2009 (after FRM 2008 exam) 17,667

Difference = 3,992 (Wow, a pretty big jump from last year's number.

Number of candidates registered (as of Oct 22nd) = 13,681

Considering a drop rate of 33% => 9167 candidates appeared and 3992 passed => pass % of 43.5%

 

[flyingtony]

how to get the drop rate of 33%?