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  1. Clay Carter

    Marginal Default Probability for 1st year

    @kc Think of the hazard rate (λ) as a baseline rate of failure, while the marginal default probability adjusts this rate to reflect the survival of the entity up to the specific time period. Over time, the marginal probability decreases due to the compounding effect of survival probabilities. So...
  2. Clay Carter

    Marginal Default Probability for 1st year

    @kc Hi, I think the confusion is because the cumulative default probability and marginal default probability are related but distinct. Cumulative Default Probability: This gives the total probability of default occurring by time t1. It's an aggregated measure. Meanwhile, Marginal Default...
  3. Clay Carter

    Just a technical clarification on T5.c/Mapping a two-bond portfolio (Jorion 11-2)

    @FLIN1386 Do you mind sharing a link to your spreadsheet?
  4. Clay Carter

    P2.T7.24.10 Evolution of risk capital measures.

    @EBarl6236 Please see the above link to the solutions (In forum). If you are having trouble feel free to ask a question in there and tag me so I'll respond.
  5. Clay Carter

    P1.T2.209 T - statistic and confidence interval

    @AVasa7074 If 15% defaulted that means that 85% did not default. Here we have a total population so our denominator is just simply N. Hope this helps!
  6. Clay Carter

    Course Errors Found in 2024 Study Materials P2.T5. MarketRisk

    @EBarl6236 Thanks for letting us know. @Nicole Seaman
  7. Clay Carter

    Expected - / Unexpected Loss and Economic Capital

    @NAndr5521 I'm working on fixing this. Because the post is so old its a little hard to find the links.
  8. Clay Carter

    Calculating expected return with beta = 1

    Hi @MMonk4392 , Both C and D are mathematically equivalent. However, I believe the more conceptually accurate answer is D since it represents the simplified and final form of the equation where the expected return E(Ri) equals the expected return of the market portfolio E(RM). As David has...
  9. Clay Carter

    Facing issue with understanding Total return swap

    Hi @capri I will summarize the points as best as I can below: A leveraged TRS involves two parties: Total Return Receiver (TRR): This party seeks leveraged exposure to the underlying asset (bond, loan, etc.) without actually owning it. Total Return Payer (TRP): This party agrees to pay the...
  10. Clay Carter

    Short Equity T + long Mezzannine T (correlation impact?)

    Hi @AChav3316 I'll try to paraphrase what I took from David's earlier response. When the hedge funds initially sold (shorted) the equity tranche, they received a fixed spread. This spread was based on the market's assessment of the risk at that time, which factored in a certain level of...
  11. Clay Carter

    Instructional Video: Chapter 5: Exchanges and OTC Markets & Chapter 6: Central Clearing

    @SKhai2554 Hi, I believe the confusion is coming from the sequences is the placement of the CCP's equity capital. While both can technically be correct the video’s description is more inline with industry practice. The CCP is most likely to use its first line of equity capital before going...
  12. Clay Carter

    Required to differentiate/integrate equations in the exam?

    @TariqA7 To this time period I have not seen differentiation or integration on the exam.
  13. Clay Carter

    Option basics

    @SKuma2148 Hi, I think the biggest difference you should be aware of is who is receiving/paying the upfront premium. Short Call: When you short a call option, you receive a premium (payment) upfront but take on the obligation to sell the underlying asset at the strike price if the option is...
  14. Clay Carter

    FAQ Exam What is the pass rate for the FRM?

    Below is the updated pass rate chart (cc @Nicole Seaman). Really brief observations: This is now a 14-year sample (28 exams; starting with May 2010 when the FRM split into two parts). The Part 1 pass rate of 45.0% sits just below its historical average of 46.1%. The Part 2 pass rate of 53.0%...
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