Carter Dyson Roulette Algorithm

[jairamjana]

Before I explain, Just want to make it clear that I do not promote betting nor involve myself in it.. I see it as an exercise in understanding probability. And yes, this is not related to FRM.. But I found this of real interest.

He explains a method where we can always profit from playing Online Roulette if we follow the following method .. This is what he says.

As in the video, use European roulette table. Do not use the American Roulette table as it has an extra Green "00" and slightly reduces your odds.

1) Place your first bet, $1 on Red or Black and spin. If you win, remove your bet and place $1 on the opposite color and spin again. Keep alternating until you lose.

This is the important part and why ultimately you will always come out ahead.

2) When you lose, STAY with the losing color, BUT, double your bet, this will cover your previous loss and provide your profit when you win. Keep doubling until you win, then change color and reset your stake to the $1.

3) Keep working the method until you have achieved your daily goal. This method will also work using Odds / Evens or 1-18 / 19-36.

It really is as easy as 1, 2, 3!

I recommend a deposit of $50 to cover this method until you have built your balance, aim to achieve a 20% increase per day.

And weirdly it does work but of course the end game winning amount assuming 35 plays per day always varies. And another important to note is that initial deposit amount should be high as $500 to ensure you don't end up in a negative cash scenario..

I made a excel file to examine his methodology

Keep pressing F9 and you will notice the total profit(in the image it's 93) never turns to negative..
My bro did some expectation calculation and found that 2^(n-2) - 1 where n is total no of bets per day is the maximum loss we can make and this maximum loss before hitting a profit figure the immediate next try.. this maximum loss has a probability of occuring = 1/2^n .. A really low number ..
Hope you find this interesting..

 

[ami44]

This is a variant of the classical martingale strategy:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

The good news is, you will almost surely win with this strategy, the bad news is, you need infinite wealth and infinite number of games for that to happen.
With a finite amount of money or number of games you will win a little bit of money with a high probability every time, but every once in a while there will be enough red or black in a row to bankrupt you.

I did not look at your excel file, but this should be the result of your simulation, otherwise some of your assumptions must be broken, or you did not do enough simulation runs.

Sorry to disappoint you.

 

[ami44]

Also to add to my above post:

I took a quick look at your graphic of your calculations. I think you made an error in counting your wins and losses. On case of a win you count the stake money as win. But you just got the money back, you placed earlier.

Look at your first 3 games and assume you start with 500 capital.
In the first game you loose 1, so you have 499 afterwards.
In the second game you loose 2, so you end up with 497.
In the third game you bet 4 and get back 8. So you have 501 afterwards, which is a cumultative win of 1 and not 5 as you show on your cumultative column.

 

[jairamjana]

So happens that bro bought a book Measures, integrals and martingale by Rene Schilling just yesterday .. Coincidence maybe.. Damn I haven't played an actual roulette game.. Saw the video and thought I understood... I will learn and come back and maybe make my bro explain martingale in an easy to understand way.. He is a lecturer after all..

Thanks @ami44.. I will tag you once I understand and reply .... The guy confidently told you require 50$ only.. I knew that was so wrong..