To calculate the theoretical futures price, we need to assume which cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bond will be delivered by the short counterparty (who will have a choice at maturity of the contract). The quoted price of this CTD bond, which is the underlying commodity in the futures contract, is...
Superficially, the yield to maturity (YTM, aka yield) simply inverts the usual time value of money (TVM) inputs by solving for the yield as a function of four inputs: face (future) value, coupon (payment), maturity (time), and current price (present value). But in terms of interpretation, I...
The theoretical bond price is the present value if the future cash flows are discounted at the spot (aka, zero rates); in other words, it is the price given by discounted cash flow (DCF). We don't expect the traded (observed) price to exactly match because the DCF price is fundamental, yet...
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