posterior-probability

This explores the answer to Miller's sample question in Chapter 6 of Mathematics and Statistics for Financial Risk Management. There are three types of managers: Out-performers (MO), in-line performers (MI) and under-performers (MU). The prior probability that a manager is an outperformer is...

I came across a example question from Schweser which I solved it below. Because the question specified that the performance in one year is independent of performance in next year. The probability that an Excellent manager will outperform 3 years in a row is (70%)^3 = 34.3% . This is why I...