Learning objectives: Differentiate between a one-tailed and a two-tailed test and identify when to use each test. Interpret the results of hypothesis tests with a specific level of confidence. Demonstrate the process of backtesting VaR by calculating the number of exceedances.
Questions...
In 2006, UBS reported no exceedences on its daily 99% VaR. In 2007, UBS reported 29 exceedances. To test whether the VaR was biased, you consider using a binomial test. Assuming no serial correlation, 250 trading days, and an accurate VaR measure, you calculate the probability of observing n...
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