contango

Long time I went to visit the forum! I wanted to update one of my old post about contango/backwardation/expected future spot price/roll yield. To be honest, during a lot of time I was very confused by the theory and the possible representations (see graphics below) that a student could find on...

Learning objectives: Compute the forward price of a commodity with storage costs. Explain how to create a synthetic commodity position and use it to explain the relationship between the forward price and the expected future spot price. Explain the impact of systematic and nonsystematic risk on...

Hi all, I would like to understand the relationship between price return and the term structure of futures conteact. I understand that contango is associated with negative roll return while positive roll return with backwardation. How is the price return related to contango and backwardation ...

In the case of a consumption commodity (e.g., corn, copper) we expected to observe contango: F(0) exceeds S(0). Contango implies (i) the cost of carry exceeds the convenience yield, and identically (ii) the risk-free rate exceeds the lease rate. We also might expect normal backwardation: F(0) is...

Three features of a commodity forward curve in CONTANGO (i.e., upward-sloping): 1. riskfree rate is greater than lease rate; 2. Negative roll yield for the long position; 3. Consistent with "normal backwardation" David's XLS is here...

Hi David, the roll yield for a long futures position in contango is negative (I.e. futures prices are always decreasing until they converge to the spot at maturity so a long futures position that closed out in the interim or at maturity will always incur loss). Does this mean that if I were to...

Hi, A Futures Contract is said to be Trading Rich when : the Actual Price E(St) > the Model Predicted Price = F0=S0* EXP[ ( Rf + Storage Costs ) - ( Div + Yield ) ] T--> Normal Contango A Short Futures Contract would Deliver as Late as possible when (Div + Yield ) > ( Rf + Storage Costs) and...

Learning objectives: Calculate, using the cost-of-carry model, forward prices where the underlying asset either does or does not have interim cash flows. Describe the various delivery options available in the futures markets and how they can influence futures prices. Explain the relationship...

Hi, question 27, in 08 practice exam part III 27. Which of the following best describes what we would normally expect to see in a seasonal agricultural market like wheat? Assume “the harvest” is normal and not unusually big or unusually small. Now consider the following statements about...