Long time I went to visit the forum! I wanted to update one of my old post about contango/backwardation/expected future spot price/roll yield. To be honest, during a lot of time I was very confused by the theory and the possible representations (see graphics below) that a student could find on...
The bond price given in the first tree was obtain using real world probability and discounting it with the 6 months spot rate... So I think that to compute the option price we needed neutral probabilities in order to respect the non arbitrage condition
Yes for raroc I was not sure which one between C and D because both criteria of decision gave a reject it was confusing... and also for the hurdle rate you surely are right I have not practiced this concept enough :/
Now I just hope I can pass this exam :')
For part 1 I thought the cutoff to be low 60 but then it comes to be low 50.. So who knows, I personally think that low 50 will be the cutoff for part 2
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